Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Job Market: No Bottom Until '09

So we have a housing market in the toilet, a stock market in bear territory and a worsening job market that will be in turmoil until 2009. Can things get any worse?
Economists are forecasting that the unemployment rate retreated slightly in June after May's big spike. But few believe that is a sign that the battered labor market is at or even near the bottom.

When the Labor Department releases its June employment report Thursday, economists expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.4% from 5.5% last month.

But job losses are also expected to continue. Economists are predicting that employers cut 60,000 positions from U.S. payrolls in June, up from the 49,000 job loss reported in May.

This would be the sixth consecutive month of job losses.

One reason for the expected decline in unemployment at the same time that overall job losses are increasing is that the unemployment reading jumped in May due to a large number of teenagers looking for summer jobs.

Many of those teens likely gave up job search efforts in June, which will reduce the number of people counted as unemployed. It's also worth pointing out that even if the unemployment rate dips to 5.4%, that's still up from 5% in April.

And some economists even think the unemployment rate increased in June, due to the flooding in much of the Midwest.

Rich Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research, said he believes unemployment could inch up to 5.6% in the month.

But putting aside the monthly blips in the unemployment rate, there is no denying that the job market is weak. Several economists see more job losses ahead as employers pull back on hiring plans due to soft demand for their products.
The job market has been weak for some time. Finding high paying middle class jobs is becoming harder and harder. Is there anyone that works for a large company that is not dealing with processing or accounting done in Mumbai or other areas outside the United States? How do our lawmakers pay them back for shipping our jobs overseas? They give them tax incentives to do it.

When will the middle class wake up and realize that it is their political ineptitude that allows this corrupt system to flourish? When will they stand up and say enough is enough? When will they realize that paying a larger share of taxes on a higher income is better than a lower rate on lower income? In the end there will still be more money for everyday needs and a federal deficit that will not kill the economic future of the next generation. Will we again let these politicians use fear and loathing to get us to vote against our own best interests?

This election could be the start of the rebirth of the greatest country on earth or it could be the final nail in the coffin of what was the envy of the world. The choices are clear, the policies of the two Presidential candidates are so different that a decision should be easy. If you let them scare you with terrorism or play to your prejudices then we will all lose and the future of this nation will be one of militarism and poverty for the masses. That is not what our founding fathers had in mind.

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