Friday, March 07, 2008

Job losses: Worst in 5 years

Is it just me or is it time to really worry?
Employers made their deepest cut in staffing in almost five years in February, the Labor Department reported Friday.

There was a net loss of 63,000 jobs, which is the biggest decline since March 2003 and weaker than the revised 22,000 jobs lost in January. Economists had forecast a gain of 25,000 jobs.

The weak report fueled already mounting recession fears and is likely to keep the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further when it meets later this month.

"Based on today's Employment Report, if we are not in a recession, it is a darned good imitation of one," said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income at Morgan Keegan. "We are in an unprecedented real estate and credit crisis that is whipping its way through the U.S. economy like a Midwestern tornado."

Job losses were widespread, reaching beyond the battered construction sector, which lost 39,000, and manufacturing, where job losses hit 52,000.

Retailers cut 34,000 jobs.

Temporary staffing firms cut nearly 28,000 from their payrolls, another warning sign of employers pulling back.

Hotels cut about 4,000 jobs, a sign that discretionary consumer spending could be on the wane.

Overall the private sector cut 101,000 jobs, with only a gain in government employment limiting losses.

"Job growth appears to have weakened across nearly every industry with the exception of health care and government," said Keith Hall, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the jobs report, testified Friday before a congressional committee.
Our financial system is in tatters as a result of greed and lack of oversight. How can we continue in our current political financing scheme which amounts to Legalized BriberyHow can we expect our elected officials to look out for the little guy when it is the large corporations that are funding the re-election efforts. We have seen the greatest redistribution of wealth in our history from the poor and middle class to the most priveleged in our society. Does that seem just? This excessive greed has caused our current situation. In many palces in this country recession has been around for years. What is happening to them now is depression like economic conditions. Will those same conditions spread to the entire nation? Only time will tell how severe this downturn will be but one thing is clear, the road ahead will be very bumpy and the pain being felt by the middle and lower classes will only get worse.

3 CEOs Made $460 million On Subprime Scheme

These crooks laughed all the way to the bank while families were being turned into the streets.
Three chief executives with ties to the mortgage crisis were paid $460 million over five years, according to a congressional report issued Thursday.

On Friday, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is set to examine CEO pay in light of huge losses in the financial sector stemming from the mortgage crisis.

The panel, chaired by Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., will hear testimony from Charles Prince, former CEO of Citigroup Inc.; Stanley O'Neal, former CEO of Merrill Lynch & Co.; and Angelo Mozilo., chief executive of Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender.

The committee asked each company for internal documents about executive pay. Committee staffers reviewed company email, board minutes and federal regulatory filings, according to the 23-page memo made public Thursday.

The memo states that the three companies combined lost more than $20 billion in the last two quarters of 2007, as investments related to subprime mortgages fell apart. Meanwhile, the stock of Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide declined drastically.

"The hearing provides a lens through which to examine whether the executive compensation and severance arrangements at these companies provided appropriate incentives to protect shareholders from these losses," the committee said.

The committee is also expected to look at how the compensation and severance packages of Mozilo, O'Neal and Prince were set and approved by their respective boards.

"In many cases, the consultants hired to advise on executive pay were simultaneously receiving millions of dollars from the corporate executives whose compensation they were supposed to assess," according to the memo.

Also scheduled to testify are Richard Parsons, chair of Citigroup's compensation committee and former CEO of Time Warner, the parent company of CNNMoney.com. The chairmen of the Countrywide and Merrill Lynch compensation committees are also set to address the committee.

Calls to Merrill Lynch and Countrywide were not immediately returned. A Citigroup spokesman declined to comment.

Damon Silvers, associate general counsel of the AFL-CIO, which is often critical of executive compensation, believes the hearing will have an important symbolic impact.

"We hope it will put pressure on folks to give some money back and send a signal to other execs that they can't get away with these perverse incentives," Silvers said.
Until the laws are changed and people are held accountable for their actions nothing will ever change. Who really thought it was a good idea to lend money to people who could not afford it and then bundle those bad loans into securities sold all over the world? It was the same executives that made millions while putting the US and other world economies on the verge of a worldwide recession.

Many argue that it was the deregulation of the banking industry that was the impetus for what is happening now. I could not agree more. Banks and brokerage houses should not be tied together. Our financial security is too important to allow this type of rogue investing. These CEO's rolled the dice and the American taxpayer lost. There should be an immediate call for the return of these ill gotten gains or a class action lawsuit that would cost them more in fees then they ever earned.

Thursday, March 06, 2008

Company With Ties To Daddy Bush Defaults on Margin Calls

The Bush family has failed Savings and Loans under their belt, they have risen our national debt to astounding numbers and now a company with strong ties to Daddy Bush is defaulting on margin calls.

What a surprise that the first family has ties to bad business.
A bond fund managed by private equity firm Carlyle Group, revealed on Thursday that it has received a note of default after failing to meet several payment demands.

Shares of Carlyle Capital Corp. Ltd. plummeted more than 50% on the news that it had missed four out of seven margin calls totaling around $37 million on Wednesday. A margin call is a payment to guarantee a much larger debt or investment.

Carlyle Capital said one creditor has issued a default notice and it expects to receive a second such notice, adding to market worries about forced liquidations of residential mortgage-backed securities.

Carlyle Capital's difficulties will have "no material impact on the Carlyle Group or its funds," Christopher Ullman, a spokesman for Washington-based Carlyle Group, said. Carlyle Group, one of the world's largest private-equity firms with $76 billion under management, manages 55 funds in 21 countries.

As of last month, Carlyle Capital had a $21.7 billion investment portfolio of AAA-rated floating-rate capped U.S. mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Yields on some of those securities have plunged to their lowest levels in two decades after credit markets dried up.

Carlyle Capital Chief Executive John Stomber attempted to play down the situation, saying the past few days had created a market environment that did not fairly value the fund's assets.

"Unfortunately, this disconnect has created instability and variability in our repo financing arrangements," Stomber said in a statement. "Management is actively working with the company's repo counter-parties to develop more stable financing terms."

But the stock, which listed on the Euronext Amsterdam in July, dropped 58% to $5, giving the company a market capitalization of $255.4 million.

The fund originally sold shares at $19 each.

The company said that seven banks that help finance its portfolio of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securities through short-term repurchase agreements, known as repos, had asked for an additional $37 million on Wednesday to keep funding in place.

It met the requirements of three of those, who it said had indicated "a willingness to work with the company during these tumultuous times."

It gave no detail on the banks in question or which one had issued the default notice.

Carlyle Capital as recently as Monday had reassured investors on its funding lines, saying it had $2.4 billion in undrawn repo lines and that it had increased a credit facility provided by the parent by 50%, to $150 million.
Do you think the ties to the Bush family will get media attention? I doubt it.

US Household Worth Falls For The First Time Since 2002

The Good news just keeps on coming.
U.S. household wealth fell in the fourth quarter for the first time in five years and borrowing slowed as home values plunged and lenders restricted credit, Federal Reserve figures show.

Net worth for households decreased by $532.9 billion from the previous three months, the first decline since the third quarter of 2002, according to the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds report today. Housing-related net worth dropped by $176.4 billion.

Lower home and stock prices and reduced access to loans are prompting Americans to spend less and are driving up foreclosures. A slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, threatens to push the U.S. into a recession.
How can the American consumer not cut back on spending? We are in a period of rising inflation, lower home values, job insecurity and a national debt that is the largest in the world. It amazes me how they still say we are the richest nation on earth. Its like that beautiful girl in high school who has let herself go but can't seem to see it for herself. It is time to face reality and prepare for a future not as an empire but as a benevolent nation whose goal is to better the world for all its citizens.

Foreclosures Hit An All Time High

Over 900,000 borrowers are losing their homes, up 71% from a year ago, and a record number of home owners are behind on payments.
More home owners than ever are losing the battle to make their monthly mortgage payments.

Over 900,000 households are in the foreclosure process, up 71% from a year ago, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That figure represents 2.04% of all mortgages, the highest rate in the report's quarterly, 36-year history.

Another 381,000 households, or 0.83% of borrowers, saw the foreclosure process started during the quarter, which was also a record.

Additionally, the number of mortgage borrowers who were over 30 days late on a payment in the last three months of 2007 is at its highest rate since 1985.

"Boy, that was ugly," said Jared Bernstein, an Economic Policy Institute economist of the data.

"It's another reminder that anyone who thought we had hit bottom was wrong. This was a huge bubble, and when a bubble of this magnitude breaks, it creates a huge mess," he said." It could take a lot longer for the correction to work through the system."
Our economy is a mess due this subprime mortgage mess and who is being held to account? No one!!. The heads of these financial firms raked in the millions while knowing that the shit would eventually hit the fan. Now it has hit and its all over the entire population. The financial suffering is being unduly felt by the middle and lower classes while the rich have laughed all the way to the bank. It is time for a serious discussion of stricter regulations and stronger laws against this type of bubble creation. The heads of Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and the others that helped this debacle develop should be in jail not lounging around counting their ill gotten gains.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Manufacturing Lowest in 5 Years

The bad economic news just keeps coming.
A key index of manufacturing activity registered a decline in February and its weakest reading in nearly five years, according to a survey of purchasing managers in that sector released Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 48.3 from 50.7 in January. Economists were expecting a reading of 48, according to a consensus compiled by Briefing.com.

The tipping point for the index is 50, with a reading above that reflecting growth in the sector. A reading below 50 represents a decline in manufacturing.

The overall reading of the index is the weakest since April 2003, and it also marks the seventh of the past eight months that the index has registered a decline from the previous month.

"This was largely expected, but still not a good sign for the manufacturing sector," said Wachovia economist Adam York.

"It's just one more sign that there's economic weakness in the economy," added York, who believes that this report will give the Federal Reserve further incentive to cut rates at a meeting later this month.

Surveyed managers said production, new orders and inventories were relatively stable last month. The ISM index showed seasonally-adjusted production fell 4.5% in the month but is still just barely registering growth. New orders continue to decline and inventories contracted faster than the previous month, according to the index.

Though fewer managers said they expect employment to be lower in February, only 10% said they expected employment to be higher in the month.

York said the report should translate into a reading of about 2.3% growth in gross domestic product when compared to similar historical numbers.

"The report indicates that there is some overall economic growth, but it's still very slow," he noted.

Last week, the Commerce Department said its revised reading on GDP in the fourth quarter showed no change from the previously reported 0.6% annual growth rate. The nation's anemic economic expansion has economists worried that the country could easily fall into a recession.
We hardly manufacture anything in the United States as it is. To have it fall off even more indicates that the once high paying manufacturing jobs that build the American middle class are gone and may not return without a serious reversal of our current economic policies.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Home Prices Continue To Fall

It is even worse than expected.
The decline in residential real estate accelerated though the end of 2007, and home prices in 20 key markets plunged 9.1% for the year, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The S&P Case/Shiller Home Price index showed its largest annual drop in its 20-year history. By comparison, during the 1990-91 recession, home prices fell 2.8%.

Prices dropped faster throughout 2007 with the index recording a 9.1% year-over-year drop in December.

"We reached a somber year-end for the housing market in 2007," said Robert Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC and co-founder of the index, in a statement. "Home prices across the nation and in most metro areas are significantly lower than where they were a year ago."

All metro areas are now reporting at least four consecutive monthly declines.
So lets examine our current economy. We have rising inflation, a dollar with the lowest value ever against the Euro, rising unemployment and we are tipping into a recession. How can things get worse? The problem is that I think we are just beginning to feel the pain.

How did we get here? This is what happens when we allow corporations to write public policy. Unless and until we overhaul our campaign finance system this type of economic upheaval will become constant. In a global economy where these companies can still generate huge profits, the future of the American people is meaningless. Until we all accept that as fact and act to change this corrupt system our economic future will be in jeopardy.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Here Comes Inflation

Like we needed this report to tell us what we already know.
Consumer prices rose in January, fanning concerns that high inflation may keep the Federal Reserve from maintaining its aggressive interest rate-cutting campaign.

The Consumer Price Index, a key inflation reading, rose 0.4% last month, according to the Labor Department. That matched the 0.4% jump recorded in December and exceeded the 0.3% rise economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast.

The more closely watched core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, representing the biggest jump in 19 months. Economists had expected a 0.2% rise after a 0.2% jump in December.

The rise in January left overall prices 4.3% above where they were 12 months earlier, up from the 4.1% rise on that basis in December.

Food prices were much higher in January. A recent driver of inflation, food prices jumped 0.7% from a 0.1% rise in December, the largest monthly increase since last February.
THis report was complied before oil hit $100.00 per barrel. Things just continue to decline economically but I feel the worst is yet to come.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

How Secure Is Our Banking System?

US banks borrow $50bn via new Fed facility.
US banks have been quietly borrowing massive amounts of money from the Federal Reserve in recent weeks by using a new measure the Fed introduced two months ago to help ease the credit crunch.

The use of the Fed's Term Auction Facility, which allows banks to borrow at relatively attractive rates against a wider range of their assets than previously permitted, saw borrowing of nearly $50bn of one-month funds from the Fed by mid-February.
Why do they need to borrow these funds? The answer is that they have lost so much money during the credit crisis that they do not have the capitalization necessary to insure deposits. If these were small regional banks they would be in receivership. Who exactly is paying for this bailout? It is you and me, the American taxpayer. So we are asked to bail out these institutions due to their lack of regulation and the greed associated with the subprime crisis. What choice do we have? Doing nothing could mean the collapse of the banking system and the onset of yet another worldwide DEEP recession or even worse another great depression.

It is for exactly this reason that banking regulations need to be more rigid. We can no longer allow the industry to police itself. It is this lack of regulation that has led us here.
"The TAF ... allows the banks to borrow money against all sort of dodgy collateral," says Christopher Wood, analyst at CLSA. "The banks are increasingly giving the Fed the garbage collateral nobody else wants to take ... [this] suggests a perilous condition for America's banking system."

The Fed announced the TAF tool on December 12 as part of a co-ordinated package of measures unveiled by leading western central banks to calm money markets.

The measure marks a distinct break from past US policy. Before its introduction, banks either had to raise money in the open market or use the so-called "discount window" for emergencies. However, last year many banks refused to use the discount window, even though they found it hard to raise funds in the market, because it was associated with the stigma of bank failure.
What else do you need to see to understand how dire this situation is? The new age of the Robber Barons is here and the same devastating effects that occured in the 1920's are here again. Will we never learn?

Monday, February 18, 2008

Is The Middle Class Already Gone?

I started this website to highlight the plight of the American middle class. It was obvious to me that the average family now needed two workers just to afford the same lifestyle that had been common just a generation before. Why is this happening and how can this alarming trend be reversed? Now there are statistics to show this very dangerous slide.
Except for the late 1990s, pay has been stagnant for more than a generation, barely keeping pace with inflation. In 1973, the median male worker earned $16.88 an hour, adjusted for inflation. In 2007, he earned $16.85.

For many families, the stagnation has been moderated by the addition of a second paycheck as more women went to work, and their pay rose over the same period.

But the largest gains went to workers at the top of the pay scale. Now, economic worries are rising fastest in households with smaller paychecks, and that chasm is widening.

"Over the past decades, whether inflation was much higher or lower, or incomes grew faster or more slowly, there has never been such a wide divergence in the experiences" separating richer households from poorer ones, Richard Curtin, the director of the University of Michigan's consumer survey said in summing up the most recent figures.
How can any Democracy flourish when the middle class is being eliminated? The answer is that it can not. The biggest problem is educating the population on political matters. This didn't happen by accident. It happened as a result of middle class Americans voting against their own best interests. Just the other day I was driving about 90 miles north of NYC and spotted an older car with wheel wells that had been rusted through. On the back of the car was a bumper sticker "Vote Republican" and I thought this dumb ass can't even afford a semi decent car and yet he is voting Republican. It is the economic policies of the Republicans since Ronald Reagan that have caused the greatest redistribution of wealth in our history and his inability to afford a safe car.

The Republicans count on people like this fool being too politically stupid to make a reasoned choice and unfortunately many in the middle class fall into this trap.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Home Prices In Steepest Quarterly Drop

The largest investment for most Americans has taken a really nasty fall.
Home prices continued their plunge during the last three months of 2007, setting a real estate trade group's record for the biggest-ever quarterly drop.

The national median price drop of 5.8%, to $206,200 from $219,300, was the steepest ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which has been compiling the report since 1979.

NAR officials blamed the liquidity squeeze that began last summer for much of the drop. Home buyers had trouble obtaining mortgage financing, especially for more expensive properties.

"The continuing crunch in the jumbo loan market that began in August has disproportionately reduced the number of transactions in higher price ranges," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, in a statement.

Fewer expensive homes were sold, bringing down median prices.

"California, south Florida, D.C., many of the high-cost markets are reflecting that," said Walter Molony, a spokesman for NAR.

Each of the four U.S. regions recorded losses compared with the fourth quarter of 2006. The West took the worst hit, at 8.7%. Prices dropped 4.8% in the Northeast, 5.4% in the South and 3.2% in the Midwest.
Prices would not be dropping so quickly if it wasn't for the fact they were artificially high as a result of the subprime mortgage debacle and other mortgage products that allowed people to bite off more than they could chew.

It was a catch-22. You really couldn't afford the house but you also could not afford not to buy the house because next year it would be even less affordable. Like any giant ponzi scheme the market eventually collapsed and took a whole lot of people with it. Our economy is a mess as a result of bad decisions on Wall St. and the endless desire for ever larger profits. The Federal Government will bail the companies out at taxpayer expense and leave the citizens twisting in the wind.

It has once again been proven that we must regulate the financial industry with strict standards. This idea that industry will police itself is utter bullshit and the proof is in the economic state we find ourselves in.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Budget Deficit Nearly Doubles

Who would want to be the next President after this administration has run us into a whole so big we may never get out?
The federal budget deficit is running at a pace that is more than double last year's imbalance through the first four months of the budget year.

In its monthly review of the government's finances, the Treasury Department said Tuesday that the budget was in surplus in January, but totals $87.7 billion so far this budget year, double the $42.2 billion imbalance recorded during the same period in 2007. The new budget year started last Oct. 1.

The Bush administration sent its final budget request to Congress last week, projecting that the deficit for all of 2008 will total $410 billion, very close to the all-time high in dollar terms of $413 billion in 2004.
The amount owed by every American just continues to grow. They talk so much about the death tax but what about the birth tax? That is the amount of debt each citizen is saddled with as a share of the national debt. Oh and always remember that these figures do not include the war costs which are considered "supplemental". Do you still think the tax cuts are generating this supposed extra revenue? The proof is in the numbers and they are getting down right ugly.

Monday, February 11, 2008

G7: No Quick Fix

The world's leading economies pledged on Saturday to work together to secure stability in volatile markets but brushed off the idea of a single uniform remedy for the Group of Seven industrialized nations.
A joint statement, issued at the end of an afternoon meeting in Tokyo of the G-7 finance chiefs and central bank governors, acknowledged that "downside risks" remain for the global economy. It also warned of the dangers of the U.S. housing crisis, while assuring that U.S. growth was expected to continue in 2008.

The officials from the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Britain and Italy also urged oil-producing nations to boost output and encouraged China to accelerate the appreciation of its currency.

"Going forward, we will continue to watch developments closely and will continue to take appropriate actions, individually and collectively, in order to secure stability and growth in our economies," the statement said.

The G-7 had faced calls for increased coordinated action to deal with the U.S. housing problems in subprime mortgage loans, financial market turmoil, high oil and commodity prices, and heightened inflation expectations.

The various countries, however, have differed on what measures were appropriate. The U.S. has urged other countries to pursue policies to boost domestic demand, while the Europeans said their economies were resilient and focused more on regulatory coordination.

Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, who hosted the gathering at a Tokyo hall, said the economic conditions in each nation were so different that a single remedy was not feasible.
The pain will continue for some time with the world's poor being disproportionately affected. It never ceases to amaze me that those that cause economic distress are usually those least effected. The subprime crisis which has sent world markets into a tailspin, has made millionaires of many who helped create the crisis. It seems crime really does pay, at least here in the good old USA.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Home Prices Set To Slide In '08

National Association of Realtors pulls back on outlook and forecasts second consecutive annual decline in prices and sales .
In a fresh sign that the nation's housing crisis will worsen, home prices are likely to decline in 2008 for the second straight year, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

The Realtors, in its monthly economic and sales outlook, is forecasting a 1.2% drop in prices of existing homes sold this year.

Only a month ago, the association was forecasting that prices would be flat in 2008 and that the home market would rebound in the last half of the year.

The group was forecasting that the first quarter would see a record 5.3% drop from year ago levels. Now it's expecting the current quarter to see even a larger decline in prices of 6.1%.

Last year, when the median price slipped 1.4 from 2006 levels, was the first on record that the Realtors recorded full-year decline in existing home prices.
The average American family is seeing steep declines in both their 401(k) balances and their home values. For most families these are their greatest assets.

Our economy has been left in a shambles by an administration that doesn't understand the plight of the middle and lower classes. When will Americans finally realize that Republican economic policies are destroying our country and have taken us from the largest creditor nation on earth to the largest debtor nation on earth. Who has benefitted from these awful policies? Those at the upper echelons of society. Is this really what we want for our nation?

Monday, February 04, 2008

January Job Cuts Up 69%

Nearly 75,000 layoffs were the highest total since August, according to a consulting firm, but the cuts are still not at 2001's recession pace.
Job cuts increased 69% in January from the previous month, as the U.S. economy continues to struggle amid a housing and credit slump, according to a survey released Monday by a consulting firm.

Global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said planned layoffs swelled to 74,986 from 44,416 in December.

The year-over-year increase was 19% from January 2007's 62,975.

The January 2008 total represents the highest monthly job cut figure since August, when there were 79,459 layoffs.

The housing and financial sectors were hit the hardest, according to Challenger, while the retail, leisure and hospitality, and professional and technical services sectors actually saw employment gains last month.

But despite the large increase in layoffs month to month, job cuts remain well below the 2001 recession levels, which averaged 140,000 per month from March to September.

"The fact that job cuts have not reached pre-September 11 levels could be an indication that the impact of the economic slowdown on the job market may be muted," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.

Challenger believes that if the government's proposed economic stimulus package works, the United States will avoid reaching the 2001 levels.
I believe that the worst is yet to come. The financial industry has just started to lay off and the housing market has yet to bottom. People are hurting financially and with easy credit a thing of the past how will families that have mortgaged their futures be able to keep pace?

The American consumer has seen their debt load go from 7 trillion to 12 trillion under the failed economic policies of this administration. Until that debt is paid down I think a slowdown in spending isn't just certain its necessary. Without real pain now we risk even worse finances down the road. So much for wanting a better economic future for your children. That is now just a pipe dream.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

The Job Market Is Worse Than You Think

An unemployment rate of 5% is low by historic standards. But the number of people out of work for long stretches is rising dramatically.
Ahead of Friday's January employment report, there is a lot of concern about the weakening job market, even as the unemployment rate stands at a relatively modest 5%.

The Federal Reserve cited evidence of a "softening in labor markets" when it announced both of its rate cuts this month. Congress is rushing to pass a $150 billion stimulus package that the Bush administration said should add 500,000 jobs to the economy.

The worries about the job market are widely shared on Main Street, Wall Street and inside the beltway.

The Conference Board's latest consumer confidence survey found that twice as many people believed there would be fewer jobs available six months from now than those who expected more jobs.

And a survey conducted for Fortune magazine from earlier this month found that just over one in four Americans are somewhat worried or very worried about losing their job in the next 12 months.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are forecasting that the unemployment rate will remain at 5% in Friday's report. However, it's worth a reminder that this is up from just 4.7% in November. And economists expect an addition of 70,000 jobs in the month, only a modest increase.

But the jobs numbers may be even worse than they first appear. That's because the number of Americans who have been out of work for six months or longer is on the rise.

Harder to find a new job The number of long-term unemployed stood at a seasonally-adjusted 1.3 million in December, up about 22 percent from year-earlier levels. The full-year average for 2007 was 1.2 million long-term unemployed, nearly double the reading for 2000 -- just before the last recession.
What happens to the long term unemployed? Are they still counted when the rate is calculated? The answer is no. Once you are off the unemployment rolls you are no longer considered when doing the statistics. What about those who are underemployed? How many of us have seen middle aged men now working as cashiers in the local grocery store? I know I have seen it often here in NY. Whether it is a second job to meet the bills or a stop gap measure to keep food on the table, it is not a good sign for the middle class who are being decimated.

Monday, January 28, 2008

New Home Sales: Biggest Drop Ever

Weak December sales caps 2007's record slide, with prices for the month off sharply from a year earlier.
New home sales posted the biggest drop on record in 2007, according to the government's latest look at the battered housing market, as a year that saw a meltdown in the mortgage market and a drop in home values ended with yet more signs of weakness.

December sales came in at an annual rate of 604,000, the Census Bureau report showed, down from 634,000 in November, which was also revised lower.

The reading was well below the consensus forecast of 645,000, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The weak December sales left full-year new home sales at 774,000, down 26 percent from the 1.05 million sales in 2006. That was the biggest drop since the government started tracking new home sales in 1963, surpassing the 23 percent decline posted in 1980.

No bottom yet Adam York, an economist with Wachovia, said the report confirms fears that the housing market won't bounce back anytime soon.

"We're expecting sales to decline into at least mid-2008," he said. "We think housing still has a long way to go."
Its really amazing how much damage has been done to the housing market as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis. By giving loans to those that could least afford it, the price of homes remained artificially high and the resulting bubble has burst causing financially pain not only in the United States but around the world.

Will we learn anything from this situation and enact meaningful reforms to stop the next crisis from happening? History says no so let the buyer beware.