I was listening to 7 Days In America on Air America Radio when I heard Bob Shrum say this election was going to be about national security. My first thought was what was Bob Shrum still doing talking about politics. He has been involved with 8 Presidential campaigns and all were losers. His opinions are about as valid as Britney Spears.
This next election will be partially about national security but any campaign that ignores the economic realities of today will be the losing campaign. One of the major economic issues will the subprime mortgage debacle and the resulting record number of foreclosures. This will be especially true in two very important states for the 2008 election, Ohio and Florida.
Of the 500 zip codes with the highest level of foreclosures 72 are in Florida and 49 are in Ohio. That ranks these states as the number two and three in the country behind California. That will cause the foreclosure crisis to extend to many other parts of the economy throughout the country but most specifically in these states.
Is there anyone that doesn't understand that the downturn in the housing market will affect the construction industry, the home remodeling industry and every other industry that depends on a healthy housing market? So although you may not be having difficulty making your mortgage payments you will be especially affected in these states with lower home values and lower overall economic activity.
This same scenario is also present in Colorado, Nevada and Arizona where they are also seeing sharp increases in foreclosures. Lower home values will affect the "wealth factor" which is how many people judge whether or not to make that big ticket purchase. If you feel wealthy then you will spend, if suddenly you see your net worth shrinking as the result of lower home prices, then you will be less likely to make the purchase. It is this wealth factor that I believe will make Ohio and possibly Florida vote Democratic in 2008.
I believe the Republican party also believes this so they are trying to change the allocation of electoral votes in California. . With one ballot initiative they could recapture the votes they lose in Ohio. Do you think that is a coincidence?
Our economy is hanging by a thread and the Republicans understand that. They also know they will be blamed for the eceonomic downturn that is now beginning to surface. If you can't win on the merits then you cheat. That is the Republican mantra. It is up to the progressive community to stop this legal attempt to steal the 2008 election.